Scenario model

Debt simulator

Project the Russian federal government's OFZ-PD and OFZ-PK debt over the next ten years.

Assumptions

All values in %, unless stated otherwise

OFZ-PD opening stock 1 Jan 2027, % of GDP OFZ-PK opening stock 1 Jan 2027, % of GDP Average interest rate OFZ-PD Loading latest Bonds data… GDP deflator Annual change Real GDP growth Annual change Short-term rates Applied to OFZ-PK debt service Long-term rates Applied to new OFZ-PD issuance Share of OFZ-PK in issuance 0–100% of annual issuance Primary deficit % of current-year GDP

Debt and fiscal turnaround projection

Independent left and right scales

Loading latest OFZ-PD rate…

Projection table

Nominal amounts in bn RUB; ratios in % of GDP

Year	Nominal GDP (bn RUB)	Total debt (bn RUB)		Debt to GDP		Total deficit (bn RUB)	Total deficit to GDP	Interest payments to GDP	Primary deficit to GDP	Pr. surplus needed	Turnaround needed	Nominal GDP growth	OFZ-PD debt service	Average OFZ-PD yield		OFZ-PK debt service	OFZ-PD net issuance	OFZ-PK net issuance	Total net issuance	OFZ-PD stock		OFZ-PK stock
Year	Nominal GDP (bn RUB)	Start of year	End of year	Start of year	End of year	Total deficit (bn RUB)	Total deficit to GDP	Interest payments to GDP	Primary deficit to GDP	Pr. surplus needed	Turnaround needed	Nominal GDP growth	OFZ-PD debt service	Start of year	End of year	OFZ-PK debt service	OFZ-PD net issuance	OFZ-PK net issuance	Total net issuance	Start of year	End of year	Start of year	End of year

Calculation methodology

Nominal GDP starts from the database's full-year 2026 GDP value and is projected using the GDP deflator and real growth multiplicatively. Opening OFZ-PD and OFZ-PK stocks are converted into rubles using that 2026 GDP base. Start-of-year ratios use opening GDP; end-of-year ratios use projected GDP for that year. Interest is charged on each year's opening debt stock. The primary deficit plus interest expense determines net issuance, which is split between OFZ-PK and OFZ-PD. “Pr. surplus needed” is the primary balance that would keep the debt-to-GDP ratio exactly unchanged during that year; a negative value indicates the primary deficit compatible with a stable ratio. “Turnaround needed” adds the assumed primary deficit to that stabilizing primary balance and therefore shows the required spending cuts or additional revenue as % of GDP. The average OFZ-PD yield is shown before and after it is reweighted with the long-term rate on new OFZ-PD issuance. The model assumes no separate redemptions or instruments other than OFZ-PD and OFZ-PK.